Random NBA Fan’s Game-by-Game Predictions at the All-Star Break

NBA fans we are in the midst of the NBA All-Star weekend and since there are no games for the next few days, now is a good time to take a look at how accurately (or inaccurately) my game-by-game predictions have done in predicting each team’s record.

Each year, before the start of the season, I make predictions for every single game of that NBA season.  In a normal 82-game season, my goal is to have my predicted record for each team fall within five games of that team’s final record.  In this lockout shortened season, my margin for error drops to four games.

Since my margin for error for the entire season is four games, at the midway point of the season my predicted record needs to be within two games of a team’s actual record to be considered on track.  On track at this point of the season does not mean that my final predicted record will be within my goal of four games of a team’s record at the end of the season.  There is still a lot of basketball left to be played.

But at the All-Star break, I am on track for half of the teams in the league (Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, New Jersey Nets, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors and Utah Jazz).

The tables below compare my predictions with each team’s actual record at this point of the season.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order.

Eastern Conference Comparison


Team Actual Record Predicted Record Difference
Atlanta Hawks 20-14 19-15 1
Boston Celtics 15-17 23-9 8
Charlotte Bobcats 4-28 9-23 5
Chicago Bulls 27-8 28-7 1
Cleveland Cavaliers 13-18 9-22 4
Detroit Pistons 11-24 10-25 1
Indiana Pacers 21-12 15-18 6
Miami Heat 27-7 25-9 2
Milwaukee Bucks 13-20 17-16 4
New Jersey Nets 10-25 12-23 2
New York Knicks 17-18 20-15 3
Orlando Magic 22-13 23-12 1
Philadelphia 76ers 20-14 18-16 2
Toronto Raptors 10-23 8-25 2
Washington Wizards 7-26 12-21 5

Western Conference Comparison


Team Actual Record Predicted Record Difference
Dallas Mavericks 21-13 26-8 5
Denver Nuggets 18-17 14-21 4
Golden State Warriors 13-17 15-15 2
Houston Rockets 20-14 18-16 2
Los Angeles Clippers 20-11 16-15 4
Los Angeles Lakers 20-14 23-11 3
Memphis Grizzlies 19-15 21-13 2
Minnesota Timberwolves 17-17 9-25 8
New Orleans Hornets 8-25 12-21 4
Oklahoma City Thunder 27-7 23-11 4
Phoenix Suns 14-20 10-24 4
Portland Trail Blazers 18-16 20-24 2
Sacramento Kings 11-22 10-23 1
San Antonio Spurs 24-10 23-11 1
Utah Jazz 15-17 14-18 1

Random NBA Fan’s Record for the First Half of the Season: 315-187

Click here to see predictions for all 990 games of the 2011-2012 NBA season


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