NBA fans we are in the midst of the NBA All-Star weekend and since there are no games for the next few days, now is a good time to take a look at how accurately (or inaccurately) my game-by-game predictions have done in predicting each team’s record.
Each year, before the start of the season, I make predictions for every single game of that NBA season. In a normal 82-game season, my goal is to have my predicted record for each team fall within five games of that team’s final record. In this lockout shortened season, my margin for error drops to four games.
Since my margin for error for the entire season is four games, at the midway point of the season my predicted record needs to be within two games of a team’s actual record to be considered on track. On track at this point of the season does not mean that my final predicted record will be within my goal of four games of a team’s record at the end of the season. There is still a lot of basketball left to be played.
But at the All-Star break, I am on track for half of the teams in the league (Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, New Jersey Nets, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors and Utah Jazz).
The tables below compare my predictions with each team’s actual record at this point of the season. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
Eastern Conference Comparison
| Team | Actual Record | Predicted Record | Difference |
| Atlanta Hawks | 20-14 | 19-15 | 1 |
| Boston Celtics | 15-17 | 23-9 | 8 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 4-28 | 9-23 | 5 |
| Chicago Bulls | 27-8 | 28-7 | 1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 13-18 | 9-22 | 4 |
| Detroit Pistons | 11-24 | 10-25 | 1 |
| Indiana Pacers | 21-12 | 15-18 | 6 |
| Miami Heat | 27-7 | 25-9 | 2 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 13-20 | 17-16 | 4 |
| New Jersey Nets | 10-25 | 12-23 | 2 |
| New York Knicks | 17-18 | 20-15 | 3 |
| Orlando Magic | 22-13 | 23-12 | 1 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 20-14 | 18-16 | 2 |
| Toronto Raptors | 10-23 | 8-25 | 2 |
| Washington Wizards | 7-26 | 12-21 | 5 |
Western Conference Comparison
| Team | Actual Record | Predicted Record | Difference |
| Dallas Mavericks | 21-13 | 26-8 | 5 |
| Denver Nuggets | 18-17 | 14-21 | 4 |
| Golden State Warriors | 13-17 | 15-15 | 2 |
| Houston Rockets | 20-14 | 18-16 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 20-11 | 16-15 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 20-14 | 23-11 | 3 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 19-15 | 21-13 | 2 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 17-17 | 9-25 | 8 |
| New Orleans Hornets | 8-25 | 12-21 | 4 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 27-7 | 23-11 | 4 |
| Phoenix Suns | 14-20 | 10-24 | 4 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 18-16 | 20-24 | 2 |
| Sacramento Kings | 11-22 | 10-23 | 1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 24-10 | 23-11 | 1 |
| Utah Jazz | 15-17 | 14-18 | 1 |
Random NBA Fan’s Record for the First Half of the Season: 315-187
Click here to see predictions for all 990 games of the 2011-2012 NBA season
